In January 2012, digital technology took over 35 mm celluloid, this is known as the crossover point. By the end of 2012, the share of 35 mm declined by 37% of global cinema screens, whilst digital accounting for 63%. This represents a dramatic decline for 35mm, which was used in 68 percent of global cinema screens in 2010. In 2015, 35mm will be used in just 17 percent of global movie screens, relegating it to a niche projection format. This was a projected figure.
Avatar changed everything
When Avatar was released in 2009, this represented the pivotal moment for the digital market. However, before Avatar, digital represented only a small portion of the digital market. It only accounted for 15% of global screens in 2009. After Avatar, digital’s share grew by leaps and bounds, jumping by 17 percentage points in both 2010 and 2011, compared to the single-digit increases during the previous years.
Managing the transition
The decline of 35mm and rise of digital is having a major impact on celluloid supply, processing and demand.
For example, demand for 35mm cinema film is expected to decline from a peak level of 13 billion feet a year in 2008, to as little as 4 billion in 2012. The cost of producing a celluloid film is soaring due to rising prices for a key raw material, silver.
The decline in demand and manufacturing and the rise in prices and raw material costs could cause consolidation among the film stock supplier base, with the three major players in this area possibly being whittled down to just one by the time 35mm demand ends completely.
Film Prints Track 35mm Decline
A similar phenomenon is occurring in the demand for 35mm film prints, which is declining sharply as more screens are digitised.
The End of an Era
In the United States, there will be no more mainstream 35mm usage from the end of 2013.
For Western Europe, this event may happen at the end of 2014, given the large number of countries and the possibility of public support.
The rest of the world will then be under some pressure to follow suit. Because of this, 35mm will see its last mainstream usage by the end of 2015.
While the era of 35mm will end at this time, there will still be some older films circulating in print for some cinemas. Ironically, these last prints may have a high value as they circulate among a relatively small number of theatres dedicated to keeping the legacy of traditional film alive.
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